8th May, 2026
The Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll reveals the early front runners in the Galway West byelection race; Seán Kyne (Fine Gael) attracts 17 per cent of the first preference votes, closely followed by Noel Thomas (Independent Ireland) at 16 per cent and Helen Ogbu (Labour Party) at 12 per cent.
Interviewing for this poll was carried out by telephone between Friday 1st and Tuesday 5th May, among a random sample of 530 eligible voters. The estimated margin of error is around plus or minus four per cent.
A total of 17 candidates are contesting the seat vacated by Catherine Connolly following her presidential election success. A busy fortnight of campaigning lies ahead.
Seán Kyne (Fine Gael) is quick off the mark with 17 per cent support, up from the 9 per cent first preference vote he garnered in the 2024 general election. His party colleague Hildegarde Naughton, who went on to secure a seat in Galway West in 2024, registered at 10 per cent, so the combined Fine Gael vote in 2024 (19 per cent) is available for Sean Kyne in this byelection.
Kyne is hugely popular among voters aged 65 and older, garnering 37 per cent support among this cohort. This may prove to be advantageous on election day, with this group among the most likely to turn out to vote.
It’s worth noting that a government candidate has not won a byelection since 2014.
Noel Thomas (Independent Ireland) also has early momentum, polling at 16 per cent. His appeal is broadly based across the age groups, and he is the preferred candidate among working class voters at 20 per cent.
Thomas is relatively weaker in Galway City, on 10 per cent and trailing Kyne (16 per cent) and Ogbu (15 per cent). A strong performance in Galway City is almost essential to winning Galway West.
Helen Ogbu (Labour Party) is polling strongly, at 12 per cent, a leap from the three per cent she achieved in the 2024 general election and well ahead of Labour’s national standing. Ogbu is the preferred candidate among 18 to 24 year olds (on 21 per cent) and ranks second among middle-class voters (on 16 per cent), just behind Kyne (18 per cent). Mobilising young voters on polling day will be key to Ogbu’s success.
A further six candidates register a first preference vote ranging from 9 per cent to 6 per cent.
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (Social Democrats) is on 9 per cent, Cillian Keane (Fianna Fáil) is on 8 per cent, Mark Lohan (Sinn Féin) and Mike Cubbard (Independent) both register at 7 per cent, followed by Niall Murphy (Green Party) and Thomas Welby (Independent) on 6 per cent.
Galway West voting patterns are not reflective of the national picture, with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin noticeably falling short of expectations. Sinn Fein typically rely on young people and working-class voters to shore up their support, but neither appear at this stage to be getting behind Mark Lohan. Fianna Fail’s Cillian Keane is also polling well below their national poll standing. Instead, voters are leaning towards Independents and smaller parties at this stage in the race.
Further down the rankings are Orla Nugent (Aontú) on 4 per cent, Sheila Garrity (Independent) on 3 per cent, Denman Rooke (People Before Profit – Solidarity) on 2 per cent and AJ Cahill (The Irish People), Michael Ryan (Independent) and John O’Leary (Independent) all on one percent.
Given that the quota for a byelection is 50 per cent of the vote plus one, transfers are going to play an important role.
Voters in today’s poll were asked to provide their second preference voting intention, although we should be mindful that polls are very limited in how much they can tell us about how transfer will shape the outcome of an election.
Seán Kyne is not nearly as transfer unfriendly as government candidates sometimes are, capturing 15 per cent of the second preference vote. Thomas Welby (Independent) on 14 per cent and Helen Ogbu (Labour Party) on 11 per cent are also likely to benefit from transfers as the count progresses. Of course, the extent to which candidates benefit from transfers depends on how long they can stay in the race.
In analysing today’s poll results, it’s important to remember that they represent a snapshot in time. With two weeks of campaigning left, the landscape can shift, especially in byelections, as parties intensify their efforts, name recognition grows and narratives change. Turnout will also be key, especially if some age cohorts decide to stay at home.
For more details and the full report or more information, please contact Aisling Corcoran, Director: aisling.corcoran@ipsos.com
Some recent press coverage:
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2026/05/11/people-are-geared-towards-voting-left-ogbu-hopeful-of-labour-win-in-galway-west/
https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2026/0510/1572623-twip-galway-west/
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/galway-by-election-hopeful-noel-thomas-objects-to-10m-expansion-plans-for-salthill-gaa-club/a917656255.html
